Maximising the benefit of domestic and export markets scenario: predicting models for durian production

Ahmad, Aimi Athirah and Jamaluddin, Jannatul Ain and Yusof, Fadhilah and Safari, Suhana and Mohd Yusof, Rozita (2018) Maximising the benefit of domestic and export markets scenario: predicting models for durian production. [Journal / Magazine]

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Abstract

In this decade, the Malaysian durian industry is focusing towards meeting the domestic and export market demands. In order to continually supply for both of the markets, management of production and marketing need to be strengthened to avoid shortage or surplus of durian fruits. This research is designated to forecast durian production one year in advance (2018) in Peninsular Malaysia using production data from the year 1992 to 2017 and also to quantify the sales volume in both markets to achieve the maximum profit. Forecasting performance of two classical time series methods which are Moving Average (MA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) were compared based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Model with the least value of MAPE is considered the most accurate prediction. The results revealed that SES with alpha 0.9 is the most appropriate model to forecast durian production in Peninsular Malaysia in 2018. Using the forecasted value of SES, Linear Programming model was then applied to assess the value of estimated quantity in domestic and export markets to achieve the maximum profit in the following year. Results found that the maximum profit of durian production in Peninsular Malaysia is predicted to be around RM4.5b. In order to achieve this maximum profit, the total quantity of domestic and export demands must reach 14,105.93 metric tonnes (MT) and 163,625.07 MT, respectively. These findings may help in determining the appropriate volumes to export durian in order to get the best price and maximise profit.

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